Sunday, April 30, 2006

Grab bag

Was in DC and then drove to NYC last week. A little bit of on-line poker only. Wiped out from the driving. (500 miles over 3 days). Then came home Friday and had a bad reaction to an allergy shot and checked myself into the ER for nasty chest pains and shortness of breath. All is okay now.

In the past 30 hours I've found time for 5 $5.50 sng's on pokertards, and took four consecutive seconds and finally a first. I feel like I'm getting much better about choosing when to be agressive and when to back down. I'm back up to $150 on tards after having been down to $90. Maybe I should stick with sngs for a while to build the account up before farting around with PLO8 and bigger tourneys.

Sunday, April 23, 2006

More PLO8 Odds - High Wrap Draws

High Two-Suited Wrap hands versus one or more low hands

Two suited high wrap only a slight dog against a wheel wrap with one flush draw.
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 168102 311381 188619 0 0 0 0 0.479
4s 2s Ac 3d 188619 188619 311381 0 292338 0 0 0.521

Same hands plus a donk hand with an Ace, a wheel card and a middle pair. The donk hand is actually .223 EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 104248 212857 287143 0 0 0 0 0.317
4s 2s Ac 3d 135072 137323 361649 1028 292928 6101 2023 0.460
9c 5c 9d Ah 68742 148792 350180 1028 9603 191655 2023 0.223

If against two hands both drawing low, the wrap becomes the favorite
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 160523 251893 248107 0 0 0 0 0.412
8s 2s Ac 3d 59832 109768 381094 9138 73681 39784 146408 0.299
5c 2c 4d Ah 54058 129201 361661 9138 45090 68183 146408 0.289

If both the lows have a low pair and are drawing to trips, it's much closer to even.
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 139403 219976 280024 0 0 0 0 0.359
8s 2s Ac 2d 76401 122461 376936 603 161497 69192 3775 0.331
4c 3c 4d Ah 84848 156960 342437 603 94251 136814 3775 0.310

High Two-Suited Wrap draw versus a suited pair of aces. The wrap is a dog.
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 162079 162079 337169 752 0 0 0 0.325
As Ts Ac 9c 337169 337169 162079 752 0 0 0 0.675

Even with unsuited aces, the high wrap is still a big dog if the aces have a low draw.
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad Jd Kh Qh 134821 190363 309637 0 0 0 0 0.325
As Ac 7d 9h 309637 309637 190363 0 220166 0 0 0.675

Blind three legged pig finds acorn!

PLO8 turbo tourney. I couldn't pass up the pot odds with a high wrap draw hand.

Seat 1: oldgezer (2914 in chips)
Seat 2: jackpotjb (2313 in chips)
Seat 3: TheRomer (2287 in chips)
Seat 4: Andromedae (4641 in chips)
Seat 5: KMFGB (3508 in chips)
Seat 6: DaHammersbro (2904 in chips)
Seat 7: gorokoch (2156 in chips)
Seat 8: FrankNagaiJr (3575 in chips)
Seat 9: pqmt (2702 in chips)

antes 25
Andromedae: posts small blind 200
KMFGB: posts big blind 400
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Jd Ad Th Qs]

DaHammersbro: raises 400 to 800
gorokoch: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls 800
pqmt: raises 1877 to 2677 and is all-in
oldgezer: folds
jackpotjb is connected
jackpotjb: folds
TheRomer: folds
Andromedae: folds
KMFGB: calls 2277
DaHammersbro: calls 1877

Hmm, if I stay to see the flop, I've gotta see all five cards.

FrankNagaiJr: raises 873 to 3550 and is all-in
KMFGB: calls 806 and is all-in
DaHammersbro: calls 202 and is all-in
FrankNagaiJr said, "wheee"

I'm the one below with the .104 EV. That can't be good.

cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac Ah 6h 5h 98224 135850 240947 195 175299 71028 189 0.448
Qs Ad Jd Th 17236 44276 307893 24823 0 0 0 0.104
Js Ts Jc Tc 26762 76095 276074 24823 0 0 0 0.159
Ks 2s Kd 3d 52580 95753 281044 195 90912 58740 189 0.289

*** FLOP *** [3c 5d Qh]
My EV has skyrocketed to .112!!! (the AA is now .615 EV)

*** TURN *** [3c 5d Qh] [Qd]
I am now virtually a lock on the high, and only AA has a draw to a low.

*** RIVER *** [3c 5d Qh Qd] [Jh]
He shoots, he scores!

KMFGB: shows [Ah Ac 6h 5h] (HI: two pair, Aces and Queens)
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Jd Ad Th Qs] (HI: a full house, Queens full of Jacks)
FrankNagaiJr collected 1208 from side pot-2
DaHammersbro: shows [Jc Js Ts Tc] (HI: a full house, Jacks full of Queens)
FrankNagaiJr collected 606 from side pot-1
pqmt: shows [Kd Ks 3d 2s] (HI: two pair, Kings and Queens)
FrankNagaiJr collected 11133 from main pot
No low hand qualified
FrankNagaiJr said, "wow"

PLO8 - a few all-in scenarios

I've been playing some tourney PLO8. I'd better learn a few all-in EVs.

All stats from

Suited Aces with no low draw versus three low cards
Aces only slightly ahead in first scenario with one decent flush draw for low
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Qs Ac Kc 178503 343501 156499 0 0 0 0 0.522
9c 5c Ad 2d 156499 156499 343501 0 266344 0 0 0.478

Give lows two flush draws, and they pull ahead
As Qs Ac Kc 166022 320697 179303 0 0 0 0 0.487
Ad 2d 9h 5h 179303 179303 320697 0 266411 0 0 0.513

Take away flush draws for the lows, and they plummet in value
As Qs Ac Kc 194297 373539 126461 0 0 0 0 0.568
9s 2c Ad 5h 126461 126461 373539 0 266876 0 0 0.432

Three Lows with one suited ace versus a high pair with no low draw
Lows are ahead here
Ks Qs Kc Tc 151684 307389 192611 0 0 0 0 0.459
9s Ad 2d 5h 192611 192611 307389 0 290483 0 0 0.541

Change the suits in the lows favor, and the high pair is a big dog
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Kc Qc Tc 141126 270743 229257 0 0 0 0 0.412
9s 5s Ad 2d 229257 229257 270743 0 290266 0 0 0.588

Here's the tourney hand that killed me a few moments ago:
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Kc 3c Qh 155960 279053 219810 1137 0 0 0 0.436
Js 2s Ad Kd 219810 219810 279053 1137 201393 0 0 0.564

I was the 56 percent fave, but the flop brought a king and my low didn't come, and three kings was good enough. Note that he was drawing to one king here. Oh well.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Jack high straight flush

Forgot to mention that I got a jack-high straight flush last Saturday in a live game with the social group. That seems to me like I've gotten a pretty high quantity of these. Still waiting for my royale.

Human Dealers (the Thong Song)

At the LO8 table at the casino on Thursday night, I had a BB hand that started out with a flopped two pair and a flush draw, and only one low card. I bet and two chasers come with me (there were at least two players who were happy to chase runner-runner lows all night long....). The turn comes high, and I bet my two pair again, and one player is making, and the nervous player acts out of turn, and the dealer, Thong, flips the river without realizing there was a player yet to act.

The river card gave me boat with no possible low, naturally. The nervous player says that the card should be burned, but the dealer calls the floor manager, and the true river is put back in the deck which is then reshuffled. Naturally, the new river is a low card, but I'm lucky to at least get half the pot, which should have rightfully been my whole pot.

I resolved to stiff the dealer, Thong, for the remainder of the evening, but I was winning so few pots that I only stiffed him maybe 5% of what he took away from me by flipping out of sequence.

Give me credit for not tilting, despite being on a losing streak for the evening.

Friday, April 21, 2006

Foxwoods LO8

Foxwoods has a zillion Hold'em tables, and they had one LO8 table. I sat down at 9PM and left the table at 4AM, occasionally getting up to pass water. Lost 13 BB in the course of 7 hours, so it wasn't a stellar session, I started with two hours of cold cards at a full table of chasers, and after that I kept playing catch-up, getting close to break even and then bleeding again.

Friday, April 14, 2006

All-in Math

Let's suppose that you're playing with a whack job who'll make huge pre-flop bets blind, and he's just made one to open the pot. The amount is 60% of your existing stack. You make the call w/KQo, since you've had a cold spell and you don't mind gambling against a random hand. Two other players call behind you, apparently also in the mood to gamble.

The flop comes AT8, so you've got an inside draw to a straight and you check praying for a free miracle. The player to your left, with a bigger stack, pushes his remaining stack in and has you covered, and the other two players fold (including the whack job). Is an inside straight (with a runner-runner flush draw) a clear fold to you?

If there is 240 percent of your stack in the pot, and with this players all-in, you can see the remaining two cards for a pot of 280 with an investment of 40. In other words, you're putting in about 14% of the existing pot to see the next two cards.

We can safely assume your opponent doesn't have trip aces, as he would have pushed. He may reasonably have two pair, trip tens or eights, but probably no worse.

Cardplayer gives odds of 16.57% to win for you against trip eights, and 19% to win against top two pair. Even though your odds are slim, if you've come this far, it is not a statistical mistake to throw your last chips into the pot.

Just be sure to leave cab fare off the table.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Book Review - Kill Phil

I originally posted this review with the social group, but apparently it will get thrown out after 30 days. I will write anything I wish to keep on the blog and link to it from the social group going forward.

Review - Kill Phil

As a frequent on-line player, I bought this not for my game, but to get into the heads of people who might buy this book.

The first 30 pages tell you why it's such a great book and how it will revolutionize poker, (calling Harrington 'Old School' along the way) and stating that the only way to beat Negreanu, Ivey and their imitators is to push when the situation warrants pushing, and to avoid playing 'Small Ball at all costs'. They state they've got the cookie cutter solution that will neutralize these players.

The next 10 pages gives you 'Kill Phil' Basic, which is a cookie recipe for when to push, and how to handle a free flop in the big blind. (Mostly fold, even with top pair)

The next 70 pages are 'Kill Phil Advanced', which is a poorly written pseudo-cookie cutter formula for taking the very beatable basic to the next level. If it were a real cookie recipe, it would read like this:

If it's raining outside, take 1.5 cups of flower and 3 Tbs of sugar, unless you've got a feeling that it might get sunny later on. If you think your oven is accurate, put it to 350 degrees, but if you have an inkling that your oven might be mis-calibrated....

In short, the Kill Phil Plus tries to make the player act like a real poker player, even venturing into 'small ball' advice that may be sensible, but is poorly written and even more poorly organized. The prose is so heavily peppered with 'however', 'except', 'if', and other ways to say 'it depends', it'll make you want to sneeze.

I don't feel threatened by the army of 'Phil-Killers' on the horizon. I'm happy to loan this book out lest another 20$ goes to waste in this world.

Book Review - Annie Duke How I .....

More poker porn. This book doesn't really know what it wants to be, and it was clearly written in a hurry to take full advantage of the hyper-popularity that poker and Annie are currently experiencing. If they took the time to edit and re-write, they might lose sales I guess.

As a poker advice book, there's a tidbit every 10 pages or so, some of which I hadn't heard before, or paid attention to at least.

As a poker tourney blow-by-blow story (The structure is almost an exact copy of 'Positively Fifth Street' except that the tourney is interspersed with her biography.), it's readable but frustrating. Sometimes the hands shown and the description of the hands don't match up, and the card suits are almost never mentioned, which takes away the depth of the hand analysis. I should also mention that the WSOP tourney that she won and gives the blow-by-blow for is Limit Hi-Lo Omaha, which might be a bummer for any one-game-only players.

As an autobiography, it's a clinical re-telling of some hard times, which is preferable to a sob-sob boo-hoo retelling of those hard times.

As prose, it's dull and poorly edited. There's nary a mot juste in the whole book.

Having said all that, it's a quick and easy read. I finished it in two nights and sent it back to the library. As a free read, I'd give it a thumbs up.


Stuff I may forget.

E - 11$ in pokertards credits
Mr Dab 15 in poker tards credits
Ice - 11$ in pokertards credits PAID

I have two books of the counts. Alvarez and McManus
Count has my 'Kill Phil'
Greyhawke has my Caro DVD

Bubbly PLO8

I played a 20$ PLO8 on pokertards recently, and made 10th out of 117, which paid 30$. I'd like to blog the whole thing, but I've been busy. Here's the hand that killed me:

*********** # 181 **************
PokerStars Game #4594945101: Tournament #22780346, Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level XI (600/1200) -
Table '22780346 12' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: moona (29968 in chips)
Seat 3: TaxiGirl71 (25274 in chips)
Seat 4: gg1954 (23159 in chips)
Seat 5: FrankNagaiJr (12974 in chips)
Seat 7: Vlorg (24595 in chips)
moona: posts small blind 600
TaxiGirl71: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [2d Ah 4d 9c]

FNJ - A decent blind stealing hands, with outs.
gg1954: folds
FrankNagaiJr: raises 3000 to 4200
Vlorg: raises 6600 to 10800

FNJ - Viorg has been selectively agressive. Could have a similar hand to mine, or a high pair with a couple lows. If I walk away now I've still got 8000 in chips, but if I can't stand up with 3 to a wheel, what hand will I wait for instead? I won't come over the top, but I won't run away.

FNJ - gives me a .434 EV for this hand, so I'm a slight dog against the AAKJ. NOTE that if my two suited cards had been spades, I would have an EV of 0.475. If my Nine had been a five, my EV goes up to 0.489. If I flop a perfect wheel, my EV would go up even higher still!

moona: folds
TaxiGirl71: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls 6600
*** FLOP *** [4h 8d 8c]

FNJ - Reasonable to put in my last chips with. I've got a pair, and a draw for the nut low.

FNJ - Two dimes puts my EV at .403 here.

FrankNagaiJr: bets 2174 and is all-in
Vlorg: calls 2174
*** TURN *** [4h 8d 8c] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [4h 8d 8c 9h] [As]

FNJ - D'oh!

*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [2d Ah 4d 9c] (HI: two pair, Aces and Nines)
Vlorg: shows [Ad Jd Kd Ac] (HI: a full house, Aces full of Eights)
Vlorg collected 27748 from pot
No low hand qualified

Tuesday, April 11, 2006


played a 20+2/180 on tards for the first time in a few weeks, and placed 24th, 6 positions off the money, when my QQ came up against KK and I was at less than 10M.

I think I played decent poker otherwise, finding the appropriate steal opportunities during the dry spells, and was generally patient, giving up when I felt I was beat rather than tilting and pushing where it made no sense.

Monday, April 10, 2006

More PLO8

This hand broke me. 5 Limpers at the 25/50 level

Seat 1: $outhern boy (1600 in chips)
Seat 2: FrankNagaiJr (845 in chips)
Seat 3: aronharry (1705 in chips)
Seat 4: pfor (1320 in chips)
Seat 5: mobrown1257 (2680 in chips)
Seat 6: TOPHAT TWO (3495 in chips)
Seat 8: mdizzy53 (340 in chips)
Seat 9: GBuck08 (1515 in chips)

Me: Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ad 6s 2d 7h]

Flop: *** FLOP *** [7c 4d Ah]

I felt that I had a decent shot at high with two pair, and a backdoor shot at the low if I got very lucky, here so I pot-raised and then pushed, to face the following two hands:

GBuck08: raises 1215 to 1465 and is all-in
GBuck08: shows [3d Tc 2h 8c]

TOPHAT TWO: shows [Kh Kd 3c 5s]

As you may observe, I am ahead on the high. GBuck is ahead on the low and drawing to the wheel.

The 5 or 2 kills me both ways for 6 outs against. (One of my opponents makes the wheel and I don't)
The K kills me on the high. 2 outs against.
The 3 with no other wheel card gives me the backdoor low. 2 outs for.
The A or 7 gives me the lock high. 6 outs for. gives us the following stats:

cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s Ad 2d 7h 50 386 280 0 55 599 12 0.336
5s 3c Kd Kh 50 164 497 5 65 595 6 0.176
Tc 8c 3d 2h 104 111 550 5 528 120 18 0.488

So one might think KK35 was the big dog here? This player hit their 2 on the river for the miracle wheel scoop.

Any thoughts from PLO8 players here? I know my raise/call wasn't sterling, but I had been pushed out of some other pots by similar re-raises by other players chasing the low only, tossing two pair to see the high taken by a single weak pair.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Straight Flush

Got a Jack-high straight flush earlier this week in a cash game. I didn't even show it to the table, since my opponent folded to my bet. Still waiting for my Royale with Cheese.

PLO8 Tourney Hand

This hand broke me. The player to my left had been limping and betting, limping and betting into my BB, and I had been checking and folding.

Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level IV (50/100)

My hand: 8h 5d 9h 7s
Not a monster, but for two-handed SB v BB very playable. I'm actually ahead at the time of the reraise:
FrankNagaiJr: raises 200 to 300
Evil Danmo: calls 200

FLOP: Jc 7h Ts
I have a made straight, and a runner runner flush redraw, and runner-runner low-hand redraw.

Evil Danmo: bets 500
FrankNagaiJr: raises 1600 to 2100

I'd like to end it right here.

Evil Danmo: raises 145 to 2245 and is all-in
FrankNagaiJr: calls 145

Evil Danmo: Qh 4d Kd Jh

I am the .678 favorite according to Villain is drawing to a higher straight (9 or A with a runner-runner flush redraw. 7 outs twice.

TURN [Jc 7h Ts] [Ah]

Ouch! (Don't forget I'm now drawing to a 2, 3, 5, 6, or 8 for 1/2 the pot. That's a lotta outs!)

RIVER [Jc 7h Ts Ah] [Qd]

Can't say that I regret my decision though.

Limit Omaha Hi-Lo on PokerTards

Last night I joined a 1$ tourney on-line, and out of 450 players, and I managed to get into the top 10 ranking about an hour into it. I was at a loose table where everybody limped and they all seemed to take preflop raises personally. Of course I pre-flop raised with every A2 I saw, and eventually it paid off, tripling me up at a pretty high blind stage.

At that point there were still 250 players left, so I played for another 30 minutes at another loose table, seeing flops when I had something decent but otherwise being quiet. Then I hit a couple good hands and all of a sudden I was #2 out of 117.

I went to bed.

I woke up as #17, being paid nearly 5 times my buy-in.

No, I'm no the king of Omaha hi-lo, but it is amusing to blind out into the money.