COCC #6 Oct 21

Played cash only last night, and found myself at a tough table. There were enough loose calls that I couldn't easily bluff with nothing, and by the same token, I wasn't catching many cards to collect from legitimate betting hands. I sat four about four hours, and took in three decent sized pots, and two much smaller ones, but spent most of the evening tossing 29o and similar cards away, limping with T7o and getting raised and tossing those, etc. Many of the raisers seemed content to simply steal the blinds with a huge pre-flop raise, too.

One of the three hands was a limp with 3s 5c, and I flop the nut straight, but the only problem is that all three cards are spades, so I've got the straight flush draw, but no flush. One player bets into it, and I reraise for twice that amount. We both check the turn and river, and he had a flush draw, but no boat (board paired on turn) and no flush, so my straight was good for a medium pot.

Another hand after 3 hours of crappy cards I get AKs in the BB and there's been a raise with one caller. I make a definition reraise, and get two callers, and check dark. No bets, and there's an A-8-8 flop. I bet the turn and the initial raiser goes away, and the caller pushes his last chips, and he's got AQ, and does not hit on the river. Initial raiser stated he had KK, and I had no reason to doubt him.

About an hour later, I get AA and limp from utg, and of course, somebody is kind enough to raise for me, and I come over the top. He comes along, the same guy I stacked with AKs, and I flop an ace and check it. I small bet the turn, and make a bigger bet on the river, and stack him again. He was glad to see me go.

Otherwise, I made one successful semi-bluff multi-way, one semi-bluff that I got called on my flop bet, and I refused to fire a second barrel, and we both checked it down and his ace high was good, and I tossed oodles of limps that missed multi-way. A profitable evening, thanks to three hands alone, and not getting carried away with steal attempts amid loose callers.

Stud - Was I against a luckbox or not?

I played some on-line HORSE yesterday, and one player took all of my money in Stud. I'd like to know if he was a luckbox chaser, or if he was playing well.

Note - These hands are in reverse order. (Hand 1 is the last hand we played)

Hand 1
3rd Street
Dealt to mmw74 (Jh Tc)[6s]
Dealt to dabnut [9d]
Dealt to S-E-O-4-hire [9s]
Dealt to TheSnowman21 [Th]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kd Ks 2s]
Dealt to rawmustard [8h]
Dealt to dropkick84 [Ad]

FrankNagaiJr: brings-in low $0.25
rawmustard: folds
dropkick84: folds
mmw74: calls $0.25
dabnut: folds
S-E-O-4-hire: folds
TheSnowman21: raises $0.25 to $0.50
FrankNagaiJr: calls $0.25
mmw74: calls $0.25


Two dimes has me as the 82% favorite over MMW74 right now. The snowman liked to raise on anything, so I just cold-called for now.

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [6s] [Qc]
Dealt to TheSnowman21 [Th] [Qs]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kd Ks 2s] [As]

FrankNagaiJr: checks
mmw74: checks
TheSnowman21: bets $0.50
FrankNagaiJr: calls $0.50
mmw74: calls $0.50

I'm still an 85% fave over MMW here. I choose not to raise while my flush develops.

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [6s Qc] [7h]
Dealt to TheSnowman21 [Th Qs] [2h]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kd Ks 2s As] [3s]
FrankNagaiJr: checks
mmw74: checks
TheSnowman21: checks

mmw74: bets $1
TheSnowman21: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls $1

I'm now a 95% favorite here. I suppose I could have raised, but I know he would have called. Still, I should have raised as the favorite.

RIVER
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kd Ks 2s As 3s 5d] [Ac]
mmw74: bets $1
FrankNagaiJr: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mmw74: shows [Jh Tc 6s Qc 7h 6h 6c] (three of a kind, Sixes)

MMW74's outs on the river were any two pair or trips, as long as I didn't hit my flush. I think he did luckbox this one.

Hand Two - - It's clear that he didn't luckbox me, but I had the misfortune to score a weaker set of trips than he, and neither of us boated.


Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [9d 8d 9h 9c Ah 3d] [2c]
Seat 1: mmw74 showed [Ts Kc As Ks Kh 2s Jh] and won ($11.10) with three of a kind, Kings

Hand 3 - I failed to catch up to his early two pair.

FrankNagaiJr: shows [Kh Kc 2s As 3h 5c Jd] (a pair of Kings)
Seat 1: mmw74 showed [Tc Qh Th Qc 7h 8c 6h] and won ($9.45) with two pair, Queens and Tens


Hand 4 - I really didn't think he could show the straight, since I had 4 of his 8 outs for the visible straight draw.

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 (Qh 9h )[Kh]
Dealt to Semiclear [6d]
Dealt to dabnut [Kc]
Dealt to S-E-O-4-hire [4h]
Dealt to TheSnowman21 [3h]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 6c Ad]
Dealt to rawmustard [Qd]
Dealt to dropkick84 [3d]

dropkick84: bets $0.50
mmw74: calls $0.50
Semiclear: folds
dabnut: calls $0.50
S-E-O-4-hire: folds
TheSnowman21: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls $0.50
rawmustard: folds

Why didn't I raise? I dunno, I figure it wouldn't help me much. Advise please?
I'm currently the 67% fave over MMW right now.

4th Street
Dealt to mmw74 [Kh] [Ts]
Dealt to dabnut [Kc] [7s]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 6c Ad] [2h]
Dealt to dropkick84 [3d] [5d]

The ten has improved MMW's hand, we're now 58.5% and 41.5%.

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [Kh Ts] [Qc]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 6c Ad 2h] [Jc]
Dealt to dropkick84 [3d 5d] [As]

With these cards, our percentages barely budge.

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [Kh Ts Qc] [7h]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 6c Ad 2h Jc] [4s]
Dealt to dropkick84 [3d 5d As] [Qs]

We're virtually a coinflip now - 55% and 45% with one card to go. MMW has picked up the flush draw and could still hit two pair to win.


*** RIVER ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 6c Ad 2h Jc 4s] [Jh]
dropkick84: checks
mmw74: bets $1
FrankNagaiJr: raises $1 to $2
dropkick84: folds
mmw74: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Ac 6c Ad 2h Jc 4s Jh] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
mmw74: shows [Qh 9h Kh Ts Qc 7h Js] (a straight, Nine to King)
mmw74 collected $10.40 from pot

I honestly thought my two pair was good, since I didn't see the flush draw, and knew that I was blocking most of the outs for the visible straight.


Hand 5
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 (3h 9d) [3d]
Dealt to Semiclear [Kc]
Dealt to dabnut [8s]
Dealt to TheSnowman21 [9c]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ks Kh 4d]
Dealt to rawmustard [5c]
Dealt to dropkick84 [6h]


MMW and I are coin flipping here - 60% to 40%.

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [3d] [5s]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ks Kh 4d] [7d]

My percent goes up slightly to 67%, since neither of us improved.

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [3d 5s] [Qh]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ks Kh 4d 7d] [6c]

I shift slightly up to 70%, again nobody improves.

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to mmw74 [3d 5s Qh] [7s]
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ks Kh 4d 7d 6c] [9s]

I'm up to 75% here, and am the lead bettor on every street, and he keeps calling with a pair of 3s and optimism.

FrankNagaiJr: shows [Ks Kh 4d 7d 6c 9s Ah] (a pair of Kings)
mmw74: shows [3h 9d 3d 5s Qh 7s 3s] (three of a kind, Threes)
mmw74 collected $7 from pot

And he rivers to win.

That's five hands out of eight where I get decent starters, which is pretty rare, and where I get beat by the exact same player every time. I guess my opponent didn't play atrociously. He left the table immediately after taking all of my money in stud. Sensible fellow.

Tunica Round-up

Played two nights this week. Here's a roundup.

Tuesday -1/2 NLHE
Started out short handed and bled quite a bit. I clearly need to adjust my play for short-handed, as I was getting smoked with pot-sized river bets that I never wanted to call with only a pair. Needed to rebuy.

I was moved to a full table, with a short stack and at least two wild players. I limped once and got pushed out, then caught EP KK and limped again, wild player 1 raises to 15 and gets two callers, and my push to 60 isolates to heads up, and kings hold. I eventually get past even, leaving with four times my low-point stack for a tiny profit.

Wednesday - Tourney at Horseshoe
Blind structure is reasonable, and I see 90 minutes of hands before going bust, without ever getting my chip stack back to break-even. In the second hand, in BB I make a bump-raise with Ts Js and catch a pair and an outside draw, and I bet heavy and one player calls. The turn is a flush card, and I check and he pushes. I figure that even best case, he's got a pair of Queens, so I muck. Within 10 hands of that I get KK and raise 4bb and get two callers, and an ace flops. Player 1 bets and I muck, and they turn over AJo and ATo respectively. Nothing eventful happens for the next 80 minutes. I'm allowed to see a few flops in BB and I always miss multi-way, and I push on the final hand of level 3 with 7M with 4d 6d, and get called by the SB w/Ad Jd, and the board gives two pair and his ace is good. My only second-guess moment is that I could have pushed at 7M with KQo, except a slightly smaller stack had pushed UTG, and I didn't like having 5 players yet to act in this bounty tourney. In retrospect, it was probably better to have pushed at that time.

1/2 NLHE at Gold Strike
I played pretty well, but there were two big hands that cost me.

1) 9c 8c MP with a straddle to my right, therefore EP. I limp with a handful of others, and I flop a flush draw with an inside draw Kc Jd 7c. The monk underbets (10) and I make a min-reraise (20) and we get to heads up. I turn my flush (3c?), and bet 25, which is half my remaining stack, and he calls. The river is the Ac for a four-flush on board, and I bet my last 27, and he calls and turns over Qs Jc for the better flush.

2) Q5o in SB, and I limp to see the flop six ways. I hit two pair on a Q45 two-suit flop, and check as first to act. The habitual orphan bettor overbets (15), as he always does with marginal hands, and the monk calls him. I raise to 45 and am surprised that both of them call. The turn help neither the straight or the flush draw, so I push, and the luck-box calls for his last 25, and the monk folds. He hits his outside straight on the river.

In both of these hands I think I was making appropriate bet sizes to encourage incorrect calls, and the incorrect calls were both rewarded.

There were some other hands I was happier with the results. I made a really nice 72o EP representation of a high pair, and managed to catch two pair on the turn. This was against the luck-box chaser, so I overbet the turn and he went away. I also made a bet into a decent sized pot with a semi-bluff and knocked out four players, and didn't hit any of my draws against the short-stacked all-in player, but wasn't obliged to show the crowd that I bet my draw.

The luckbox chaser also slow-played a boat against me reasonably well. He called my turn bet as first to act, and checked the river, which to me indicated that he really didn't have anything, so I bet just enough to find out, and when he pushed for his last few chips I didn't even call, since I was playing 9 high. He flips over a boat. That was his best play all night, otherwise he was generally chasing against odds and catching a lot. He didn't seem to hold onto all the money he won though.

COCC #5 Oct 14, 2006

Went and played (and dealt) the 7:15 tourney and did okay. Here's a couple of interesting hands:

Early on, I've got a decent stack and make an EP raise w/KJs, and the BB pushes. I do the math, and I'm getting 1.5 to 1 to call, so I figure that's decent enough, since the BB had been having a really crappy run of cards and was probably ready to push with TT or even 88. I call and he flips AA, and the flop is ATx with two of my suit, and I turn the nut flush to knock him out.

In a hand I wasn't in, a player says flippantly, 'if I have aces, I'll call'. When there's an EP raise and he's coming back from grabbing a hot dog. Of course, it was indeed AA to beat KK. KK was pissed, of course.

Late in the final table, maybe 6 of us remaining, and I push with AQo and get two callers, and I have an inside draw on the flop (KTX), and the one player pushes, the other calls. The turn is a J and I've hit for the main pot, and the river is a 9, and the two players turn over KK and QT for a runner-runner straight, meaning that the KK got massacred by two separate hands. Freakshow.

My final hand 3 way, I push w/A9s in the BB after 2 limps, and I get one call, from A2o, and he hits his duck on the turn to knock me out.

Overall, I think I played well. I needed one suckout to money, but otherwise I probably folded too much but otherwise did okay.

I also dealt for the entire tourney (about 3.5 hours), and exposed one dealt card and had one misdeal all night long, and I did not once show a card early for the betting sequence, so that's as good as I've ever dealt. It's good practice for paying attention to the game, too.

Horseshoe Tunica - Swelled Head Syndrome

So I've had a decent run of 1/2 NLHE sessions recently, and I thought I'd dip my toe in the deeper waters. I'm embarrassed as hell to blog this, but maybe it'll stop me from doing something stupid in the future.

I sat down with the min buy-in and I'm nervous, and in the BB. I toss my 'free' cards multi-way with nothing, and have decent limpers in the SB and call, miss and go away. I muck three trash hands, and then raise 3bb in mid-late position w/J9o. The cutoff raises all-in, and I ask for a count, and I'm getting 2 to 1 odds to call since he was down to a small stack. I figure there's a reasonable chance I'm facing big slick, and I call. I'm facing AJo, dominated, and I fail to suck out. I'm at 60% of my original stack.

Three hands later I'm UTG and there's a button straddle. I see KQo and consider raising, but instead call, and everybody folds up to the straddle, who raises to 7BB (or 3.5 straddle) which is 1/3 of my existing stack. I push, and he insta-calls with Aces. I fail to suck out, and get stacked before the button makes a single trip around the table.

There's some lessons to be learned here by me, but I don't feel like elaborating on them right now.

Gold Strike Oct 10

Got there and there was a wait, but they opened a new table moments later. While I waited for my table, I observed the 1/2 table, and happened to see a player push his stack and get called by a pair of aces on the river. The pusher had a pair of fives and a busted draw.

There were a bunch of people waiting to hit the 2/5 table when that opened, and they seemed to be the most likely players to fold to a bluff.

I ran some bluffs very early coming in to warm up the table, and got away with at least three continuation bets after raising on fluff, and one bizarre hand where I made a nuisance raise with trash, and the board is really scary and we all check down to the river, and I bet the pot on the river and get no curiosity from the crowd.

During this early bluffing time, one of the 25-ers raises to 4bb EP, and I reraise to half my stack. He thinks for a minute and pushes with queens. My kings hold up.

Maybe 10 hands later I get Aces EP and raise 4bb, and the 25-er who strikes me as the toughest player calls me along with one other player. The board is T77, and I check. He bets the pot, and I continue not giving him any eye contact, but simply flat call. The turn is a king, I check and he checks. On the river, I'm confident my aces are still good, and I bet half pot and he folds.

I'm moved to the main table, and maybe three hands in I limp 65o and flop 347 two-suited with six other players. I bet the pot, get a few callers and a reraise. I make the minimum reraise, and one caller and the re-raiser stay on board. The flop is a second three, and there are now a heart and spade flush draw on board, plus the boat. The re-raiser pushes for half of my stack, so I'm getting 2 to 1 odds, and I flat call. I start mentally kicking myself when I remember there's a third player still in the hand, but he agonizes the pot odds, and then folds his draw. The re-raiser shows top pair and a flush draw, and fails to hit. (This was the same guy I saw push on a busted draw when I came in, and that made my call much easier.)

After that, I can't seem to work any magic at the main table. My trash limps all get reraised, my raise with trash finds a big reraise and a flat call, and I dump. Sure enough, Aces in the BB. After 45 minutes of tiny bleeding, I don't feel sharp, so I get out and go next door for a little stud.

I played 20 minutes of stud and broke exactly even. That's an improvement.

Extra bonus - They finished highway 69, which makes Tunica at least 10 minutes closer to Memphis!

A handful of PLO8 cash game hands for analysis

Hand 1

Here's a limper I came in with on the button
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ac 8c Tc 5s]
There were four other players in

Let's compare with some made up hands to give us a pre-flop percentage:
Random collection 1 with some decent starting hands

5s Ac Tc 8c 8214 29748 166085 5543 1416 89204 34236 0.147
Qc Ad 5h 2h 11536 22559 176673 2144 62298 24109 34236 0.269
3s Kd Kh 4h 19742 41180 160127 69 30489 31997 54 0.215
Ks Qs Jd Th 25656 55065 145903 408 0 0 0 0.201
8s 5c 9h 6h 11577 46009 149812 5555 7390 113253 0 0.168

You can see that despite having some week middle cards, it's not a huge dog with this many cards in play. I'm 5.5 to 1 against, and getting 4 to 1 pre-flop odds, so if I collect even a little, it's a break-even play. And with the following flop, I reraised the frequent flop stealer to take it down uncontested, and my return was 7 to 1, so only a slight playoff.

*** FLOP *** [6h Td Ts]

Of course, I'll need to change the fourth hand above to justify the folds all the way around.

When I change random hand #4 to a 9 instead of a ten, my pre-flop goes up to 18% (closer to 4 to 1) and my post-flop percentage explains all of the folds.

5s Ac Tc 8c 170 260 138 8 0 110 18 0.550
Qc Ad 5h 2h 10 10 396 0 77 30 18 0.119
3s Kd Kh 4h 32 33 373 0 41 14 0 0.131
Ks Qs 9s Jd 22 25 381 0 0 0 0 0.058
8s 6s 5c 9h 37 70 328 8 0 89 0 0.142

Hand 2

Here's a hand I call a late position steal raise with:
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [6s Ah 7s 3s]
And the raiser in our heads up: 4c 8c Qd Ac

Here's the preflop numbers

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 6s 3s Ah 172105 212258 287609 133 191509 55268 6412 0.482
Ac 8c 4c Qd 192090 287609 212258 133 64172 148500 6412 0.518

Apparently the suited Ace and the Queen high compensate for the worse low draw., but I've clearly got justification for calling.

Here's the flop:
*** FLOP *** [2c 3d 6c]
And I love that this counerfeits a lot of raising hands and leaves me with a better two pair than anybody who raised with A23X. I couldn't know that I was behind on the low, but we ended up chopping high/low.

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 6c 2c 3d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 6s 3s Ah 0 459 361 0 0 703 117 0.316
Ac 8c 4c Qd 322 361 459 0 703 0 117 0.684

Hand 3

Here's a bizarre call I made with position on a guy who liked to raise anytime he came in. I'm in the cutoff here.
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [8h 9s 8c 2h]

Pharrell1337: folds
WellHungJury: folds
Pharrell1337 leaves the table
adelbomb: raises $0.35 to $0.60
FrankNagaiJr: calls $0.60
ryanrunrut: calls $0.60
GitmoLovin': folds
xKillButtonx: calls $0.35

The only hand I actually was was the button, who was actually a slight underdog to me:

9s 8c 8h 2h 200684 335419 164581 0 3491 161560 612 0.539
6c 2c 4d 3h 161626 164581 335419 0 250842 0 612 0.461

Let's assume that the raiser and caller had reasonable O8 hands and see where I stand:

If they both have very good starters with two overpairs to my 8s, I'm 5.5 to 1 against

9s 8c 8h 2h 28117 88490 288502 0 0 139604 0 0.155
6c 2c 4d 3h 28018 62341 314651 0 82237 113420 2862 0.207
Ac Kc 5d Kh 83749 120464 255520 1008 13866 87552 2079 0.287
As Ts Td 2d 74933 104689 271295 1008 105863 28854 4887 0.352

If they have reasonable cards, but not overpairs to my pair, with no better heart draw, I'm only 4 to 1 against:

s 8c 8h 2h 48247 107703 269181 108 0 124968 0 0.207
6c 2c 4d 3h 32834 60587 316405 0 77504 101266 2862 0.208
Ac Kc 7d 5d 50039 87038 288257 1697 13144 127376 2079 0.199

Put a better heart draw out, and I'm back to 5.5 to 1 against:

9s 8c 8h 2h 32735 84389 292474 129 0 124968 0 0.156
6c 2c 4d 3h 38996 71958 305034 0 77504 101266 2862 0.225
Ac Kc 7d 5d 56322 98769 276033 2190 13144 127376 2079 0.221
Jd 2d Ah Th 93432 119557 255116 2319 95403 24678 4887 0.398

And here's the flop:
Qc 7h 5h

That's favorable for me. I've got a gutshot and a flush draw, and second pair, so even if I get action, it's worth a shot, especially with a smallish bet and me closing the action.

xKillButtonx: bets $0.50
adelbomb: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls $0.50
ryanrunrut: calls $0.50

I really think the turn helped me out, as I didn't think a pair of queens would have stayed, and two pair with the queen should have raised into that flop. Of course, this makes a low draw a bad deal also.

*** TURN *** [Qc 7h 5h] [Qs]
xKillButtonx: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets $1
ryanrunrut: calls $1
xKillButtonx: folds

Here's the actual percentages
9s 8c 8h 2h 23 35 5 0 0 13 0 0.725
6c 2c 4d 3h 5 5 35 0 17 0 0 0.275

My opponent has a weak low draw, and an outside straight draw.

*** RIVER *** [Qc 7h 5h Qs] [6h]
FrankNagaiJr: bets $3
ryanrunrut: calls $3

And my opponent calls down thinking he has a shot at the high on a paired flushy board??? Did he really think he had a shot at the low? Perhaps I needed to bet more....

COCC #4 - Oct 6

Got the blessing to play some live cards locally, and played a single table tourney with bounties. One guy (Johnny) got all of the bounties but one, and oddly enough, he won the tourney as well. I started cold, heated up to a healthy stack, then made an ill-advised blind steal w/AJo four-handed and got burned by AKo and then pushed two hands later in SB w/K9s only to find AQ looking me up and winning with no pair. Feh. I've decided I dislike this blind structure, which is 30 minutes starting at 3500 chips and 25/50 with doubling for the first five levels, since it doesn't really leave much room at all for creativity. In the second hand I successfully put my foe on a weak pair, and felt I could buy the pot, and he called me down with his weak pair, and all of a sudden I'm crippled. After one bad hand, you're in double-up or die territory.

Then I was off to the cash table, where I had a very good evening indeed.

* I made a nice read on the very first hand and pushed in against the preflop raiser, who mumbled about how I probably had him outkicked and then he folded his top pair, unidentified kicker.

* One hand later I raise preflop w/As Qs and the flop comes two spades with many straight possibilities and my lead bet gets min-raised, and called, and I've clearly got odds to see one more card, and I hit my nut flush and manage to get some decent action from one of the two bluffies in the hand.

* Another hand and Bluffy raises pre-flop and I isolate raise w/AKo, and end up with the exact same two bluffies as the AQs hand, and I flop top pair of kings on a one-suit board. Bluffy #2 semi-bluffs both the flop and turn and the fourth spade doesn't come, so I simply call down the bets and check the river to win. Easy peasy.

* Right when I was getting ready to leave, I flat called a raise late position w/ 6c 8c and I'm in the pot with the same two bluffies. I flop two pair on a ragged rainbow board A-6-8. Bluffy 1 bets 1/3 of pot, B2 raises to a pot-sized, and I come over the top to double the reraise. I'm very surprised to see B1 call, and not at all surprised to see B2 fold. The turn is a low card, and I push all-in (with paper money it's not as dramatic, but still just as much a rush) and B1 calls. He's got easily 15 outs with a pair and an outside straight draw, but he fails to river me, and I breath a sigh of relief as I grab a big hunk of cash.

I won a couple of other decent pots, I think, and had a dry spell for 45 minutes, but it was a very good night.

The one that got away? I limp QTs and the BB raises 6bb and gets 5 callers including me. I flop a flush draw with two overs on a 477 board, and one of the bluffies bets 1/3 of the pot, and I call as do two others. Turn doesn't appear to help anybody, and bluffy bets LESS on the turn, so it's an insta-call, and the two others also call. The river brings a Qs ,and there are now three spades and a pair on the board, and bluffy bets a much bigger bet, and I look at the two players on my left, and the other bluffy is already counting his money. I feel I've got the better beat with a pair of Queens, but I felt there was a reasonably good chance that there was at least trip 7s behind me, so I fold, and the next player folds, and much to my chagrin, the player counting his money asks how much he has behind, and when he doesn't like the answer, folds his busted draw. Sure enough, the guy I knew that I had beat happily exposed his K4 for 7744 with a K kicker. Glad I wasn't on a losing streak, or I might have steamed over that one.

PLO8 Tourney - Preflop percentages against whack jobs

I played a PLO8 tourney and went out 7 out of 9 after playing the first 3 levels very tight and then getting pushy pre-flop against whack jobs. Let's see to what degree I was or was not the favorite:

Hand 23 - blinds 50/100 my chipstack is 1888, and I've been tight, and the raiser here certainly hasn't. I push more than half my stack preflop with the intention of putting in the last bit regardless of the flop.


*********** # 23 **************
PokerStars Game #6512715517: Tournament #33065853, $10+$1 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/10/04 - 00:08:25 (ET)
Table '33065853 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: FrankNagaiJr (1888 in chips)
FrankNagaiJr: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [2d 8s Ac Ah]
badbugger: raises 200 to 300
Landau1120: folds
FrankNagaiJr: raises 650 to 950
badbugger: calls 650
*** FLOP *** [9h Tc 5s]
FrankNagaiJr: bets 938 and is all-in
badbugger: calls 585 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [9h Tc 5s] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [9h Tc 5s 7s] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [2d 8s Ac Ah] (HI: two pair, Aces and Nines)
badbugger: shows [Qc 5c As 9s] (HI: a full house, Nines full of Fives)

Pre-flop, I was only the 62% fave, or 1.5 to 1 fave.
On the flop, I was 34% to win, or 1.5 to 1 against.
I lost.

Hand 24 - Same situation, and now I'm at push or fold only chips
*********** # 24 **************
PokerStars Game #6512726940: Tournament #33065853, $10+$1 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/10/04 - 00:09:22 (ET)
Table '33065853 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: FrankNagaiJr (353 in chips)
Seat 2: mrfuzzy8 (1335 in chips)
Seat 4: sjking (1050 in chips)
Seat 5: boomerou247 (3235 in chips)
Seat 6: pooru (3282 in chips)
Seat 8: badbugger (3120 in chips)
Seat 9: Landau1120 (1125 in chips)
FrankNagaiJr: posts small blind 50
mrfuzzy8: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [5c As Ah 9h]
sjking: folds
boomerou247: folds
pooru: folds
badbugger: calls 100
Landau1120: folds
FrankNagaiJr: raises 253 to 353 and is all-in
mrfuzzy8: folds
badbugger: calls 253
*** FLOP *** [4d 7c 8s]
*** TURN *** [4d 7c 8s] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [4d 7c 8s Js] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [5c As Ah 9h] (HI: two pair, Aces and Eights; LO: 8,7,5,4,A)
badbugger: shows [5d 2c 6s 9d] (HI: a straight, Four to Eight; LO: 8,7,5,4,2)

Here I'm the 66% fave preflop, still about 1.6 to 1
On the flop I'm a big dog on the high, needing a six to tie, or a runner-runner to win. On the low, if my Ace isn't counterfeited, I'm golden.

Hand 27 - I'm still trying to double up to survive. We don't get to see the third players hand, so we'll fudge some numbers:

*********** # 27 **************
PokerStars Game #6512757354: Tournament #33065853, $10+$1 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/10/04 - 00:11:54 (ET)
Table '33065853 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: FrankNagaiJr (403 in chips)
Seat 2: mrfuzzy8 (1135 in chips)
Seat 4: sjking (1150 in chips)
Seat 5: boomerou247 (3035 in chips)
Seat 6: pooru (3282 in chips)
Seat 8: badbugger (3470 in chips)
Seat 9: Landau1120 (1025 in chips)
boomerou247: posts small blind 50
pooru: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Js Qd 3d Ac]
badbugger: folds
Landau1120: folds
FrankNagaiJr: raises 250 to 350
mrfuzzy8: folds
sjking: folds
boomerou247: calls 300
pooru: calls 250
*** FLOP *** [5c Kc Tc]
boomerou247: checks
pooru: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets 53 and is all-in
boomerou247: calls 53
pooru: calls 53
*** TURN *** [5c Kc Tc] [5s]
boomerou247: checks
pooru: checks
*** RIVER *** [5c Kc Tc 5s] [4c]
boomerou247: checks
pooru: bets 500
boomerou247: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
pooru: shows [3h 4h Jc 5d] (HI: a full house, Fives full of Fours)
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Js Qd 3d Ac] (HI: a pair of Fives)

Heads up against this hand, I'm the 60% fave, or 1.5 to 1 again.

Let's pretend player 3 had a few plausible hands and see where we fall
A278 rainbow - I'm still the fave, barely. (41%, 28%, 31%)

Middle pair and plausible low
TT67 - I'm still the fave, the other two switch percentages (41%, 31%, 28%)

AA5K suited Ace - I plummet 6% (35%, 23%, 41%)

Complete middle card trash straight draw
6789 rainbow - I tip slightly up (43%, 29.5%, 28%)

If we look at the money in the pot, was the BB justified in calling?

700 in the pot, 250 to call, or 2.7 to 1.
Generally, the BB was not much worse than 2.5 to 1 against, so not a ridiculous call with three to a wheel and one suit.

27 Player Tourney - Oct 1

OK, I'm sick of blogging, unless I think something is interesting. Here's a cheapo 27 player tourney.

Hand 3 - I see a flop w/88 calling a bump raise and miss with many players and an ace on the flop. Chip count 1460. (blinds 10/20)

Hand 12 - I haven't seen a flop since hand 3, and I've determined there are at least four totally unbluffable, chatty and cheerful morons at my table. I see a flop as BB w/3c 7s and give up multi-way on the AQ9 flop.

Hand 20 - I've yet to be in a hand, so I raise to 4BB @50 w/KTs to open UTG. I suppose I could have limped, but I wanted to see if anybody was paying attention to how 'tight' I had seemed. (my cards all sucked big time.) The BB calls and an ace flops, and he lead bets it, and I go away. Chip count 1205 (blinds 25/50)

Hand 21 - I call a bump raise in BB w/A7s and fail to connect. I give up to the bumpers continuation bet. Chip count 1105 (25/50).

Hand 24 - I open-raise 3bb in the cutoff, and the button reraises and the BB calls the raise. I toss my QTo, which would have flopped an outside draw. Chip count 930 (25/50).

Hand 27 - BB w/A5o for free, and the flop comes KJ5, and I toss three way when the first player pushes. Chip count 880 (50/100).

hand 29 - I push from the cutoff w/A8o, no callers. Chip count 1030 (50/100)

Hand 34 in the BB w/K3o I flop an outside wheel draw and invest 300 seeing turn and river, and I have nothing on the river. Chips = 630.

Hand 35 - I call in SB w/Q2s and miss the flop 3 way and fold. Chips = 530 (50/100).

Hand 38 - I push to open w/A7o, and I get called by A8o. Groan. Check out the board:
A 8 Q - 6 - Q

A miracle survival card! Chips = 605 (50/100)

Hand 41 - I push UTG w/A2o and get no callers, despite only having 4bb in my stack. Chips = 830 (75/150)

Hand 42 - In BB w/J2o and nobody raises, 3 limpers. I flop J23, and I lead bet the minimum and get reraised by the whack-job who took third place. He doubles me up to 1960 when his diamond flush does not hit.

Hand 43 - I toss 88 to a limp and a min-raise. Don't want to waste my double-up so quickly I guess. The raiser pushed on the K-high flop, so I think my instincts were right, but we'll never know.

Hand 44 - I similarly dump AQo to a limp and a raise by the same two clowns. How tight am I ????

Hand 48 - Another gift in the BB - I have Kd 9d with three limpers, and here's the betting sequence. Of course I was afraid of AT on the river.

*** FLOP *** [Qs Td Js]
JASPERR: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets 150
NOLA71: folds
DavSnook: folds
JASPERR: calls 150
*** TURN *** [Qs Td Js] [4h]
JASPERR: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets 450
JASPERR: calls 450
*** RIVER *** [Qs Td Js 4h] [7s]
JASPERR: checks
FrankNagaiJr: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JASPERR: shows [Th Kc] (a pair of Tens)
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Kd 9d] (a straight, Nine to King)

Chips = 2935, and I can breathe for the first time since level 2.

Hand 52 - Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good! Coach Russ was sure piling up chips despite a lot of plays that seemed really questionable to me.

*********** # 52 **************
PokerStars Game #6494662683: Tournament #32970580, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/10/02 - 00:13:41 (ET)
Table '32970580 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: CoachRuss (10315 in chips)
Seat 5: FrankNagaiJr (2860 in chips)
Seat 6: WENDY 90 (710 in chips)
Seat 7: mitzifive (1000 in chips)
Seat 9: DavSnook (3575 in chips)
DavSnook: posts small blind 75
CoachRuss: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [3h 3s]
FrankNagaiJr: raises 450 to 600
WENDY 90: folds
mitzifive: raises 400 to 1000 and is all-in
DavSnook: folds
CoachRuss: calls 850
bigpuffdaddy is connected
FrankNagaiJr: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [7s 5h 3c]
CoachRuss: bets 900
FrankNagaiJr: calls 900
*** TURN *** [7s 5h 3c] [Ac]
CoachRuss: bets 8415 and is all-in
FrankNagaiJr: calls 960 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [7s 5h 3c Ac] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CoachRuss: shows [6s 6c] (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
FrankNagaiJr: shows [3h 3s] (a full house, Threes full of Sevens)
FrankNagaiJr collected 3720 from side pot
mitzifive: shows [9d Ad] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)

Chips=6795

Hand 62 - I have bought a few blinds without showing down, which may be why my raise was not respected. I'm proud of myself for not steaming after this happened.


*********** # 62 **************
PokerStars Game #6494741581: Tournament #32970580, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/10/02 - 00:20:48 (ET)
Table '32970580 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: CoachRuss (12905 in chips)
Seat 5: FrankNagaiJr (6585 in chips)
Seat 6: WENDY 90 (720 in chips)
Seat 8: bigpuffdaddy (3880 in chips)
Seat 9: Yogi (1535 in chips)
CoachRuss: posts small blind 100
FrankNagaiJr: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Ad As]
WENDY 90: folds
bigpuffdaddy: calls 200
Yogi: folds
CoachRuss: calls 100
FrankNagaiJr: raises 600 to 800
bigpuffdaddy: calls 600
CoachRuss: folds
*** FLOP *** [7s 9c 8s]
FrankNagaiJr: bets 3200
bigpuffdaddy: calls 3080 and is all-in
FrankNagaiJr said, "nice draw"
*** TURN *** [7s 9c 8s] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [7s 9c 8s Ac] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Ad As] (three of a kind, Aces)
bigpuffdaddy: shows [Ks Ts] (a flush, King high)
bigpuffdaddy collected 7960 from pot

Chips = 2705

Hand 63 - CoachRuss may be a whack job, but I appreciate his doubling me up whenever I seemed to need it!

*********** # 63 **************
PokerStars Game #6494752084: Tournament #32970580, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/10/02 - 00:21:46 (ET)
Table '32970580 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: CoachRuss (12705 in chips)
Seat 5: FrankNagaiJr (2705 in chips)
Seat 6: WENDY 90 (720 in chips)
Seat 8: bigpuffdaddy (7960 in chips)
Seat 9: Yogi (1535 in chips)
FrankNagaiJr: posts small blind 100
WENDY 90: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Qc Ts]
bigpuffdaddy: folds
Yogi: folds
CoachRuss: calls 200
FrankNagaiJr: calls 100
WENDY 90: checks
*** FLOP *** [4s 4d Tc]
FrankNagaiJr: checks
WENDY 90: checks
CoachRuss: bets 200
FrankNagaiJr: raises 400 to 600
WENDY 90: folds
CoachRuss: calls 400
*** TURN *** [4s 4d Tc] [5c]
FrankNagaiJr: bets 1905 and is all-in
CoachRuss: calls 1905
*** RIVER *** [4s 4d Tc 5c] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Qc Ts] (two pair, Tens and Fours)
CoachRuss: shows [Qd Ad] (a pair of Fours)
FrankNagaiJr collected 5610 from pot

Chips = 5610 (blinds 100/200)

Cut to the chase!

Three handed began at hand 95 (knocking out the guy who cracked my aces.) I knocked out CoachRuss on Hand 122 when he makes a really bad decision here:

*********** # 122 **************
PokerStars Game #6495128917: Tournament #32970580, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/10/02 - 00:59:36 (ET)
Table '32970580 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: CoachRuss (13768 in chips)
Seat 4: DarvXX (7422 in chips)
Seat 5: FrankNagaiJr (19310 in chips)
CoachRuss: posts the ante 50
DarvXX: posts the ante 50
FrankNagaiJr: posts the ante 50
DarvXX: posts small blind 400
FrankNagaiJr: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [7d Jc]
CoachRuss: calls 800
DarvXX: folds
FrankNagaiJr: checks
*** FLOP *** [Js 5d 3c]
FrankNagaiJr: checks
CoachRuss: bets 2400
FrankNagaiJr: raises 16060 to 18460 and is all-in
CoachRuss: calls 10518 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Js 5d 3c] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Js 5d 3c 2c] [Qd]
FrankNagaiJr said, "gg"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [7d Jc] (a pair of Jacks)
CoachRuss: shows [5c Ks] (a pair of Fives)
FrankNagaiJr collected 27986 from pot

After that, I won the tourney on hand 162 when my ATo beat QQ, when I was the 4 to 1 chip leader. I feel that my on-line heads up in tourneys has really gotten strong, so it's a question of making it that far.

So, just a handful of miracles necessary out of 162 hands to win....