Monday, December 04, 2006

More PLO8 - Online SNG

Last night I made 45th out of 450 in a cheap PLO8, and then I took first of nine in a PLO8 sng. Let's see if I'm making good decisions, or if I'm a luckbox.

These are all from a cheap 9 player SNG.

Hands 1-30: I have some victories and losses, yo-yoing up to 2800 and back down to 1600 and getting back up to 2800 by the time hand 31 comes aroud.

hand 31 - blinds are 50/100 and and I'm dealt [As 7h Qc 3s] in the BB

Seat 1: langham1 (4376 in chips)
Seat 2: FrankNagaiJr (2735 in chips)
Seat 3: pawpaw67 (2507 in chips)
Seat 7: pinocchio46 (1937 in chips)
Seat 8: goodcash (1807 in chips)
Seat 9: polodelph (138 in chips)

There is a limp, a bump, one from the SB (langham1), I call, and the limper calls for 800 in the pot.

*** FLOP *** [7c 6d Qd]

I have two pair and not-ridiculous low draw.

langham1: bets 400
FrankNagaiJr: calls 400
pinocchio46: folds
goodcash: folds

This makes me think that my low is probably good if it hits.

*** TURN *** [7c 6d Qd] [Tc]
I'm very sceptical that this improved my opponents hand, unless he was betting the outside straight draw. The following reraise was dodgy, but proved correct.

langham1: bets 800
FrankNagaiJr: raises 1335 to 2135 and is all-in
langham1: calls 1335

*** RIVER *** [7c 6d Qd Tc] [4c]

langham1: shows [Td 6h Jd Ad] (HI: two pair, Tens and Sixes)
FrankNagaiJr: shows [As 7h Qc 3s] (HI: two pair, Queens and Sevens; LO: 7,6,4,3,A)

I would have to study hands 1-30 to determine why I felt that langham had very little, but I think I had a decent read to make this play. If I had been mistaken on my push-raise and he had the straight and a worse low draw, I have 14 outs to make my low, and four outs to make my boat.

Brilliant read or donk play?

Hand 35 - blinds are 75/150, and there are two virtual dead stacks out of the remaining six players. I limp [Jd 8d 4s Ac], and two of the other live stacks limp in.

*** FLOP *** [5h 3d 7s]

I have a weak low draw, as well as four outs for a wheel, and four more outs for a vulnerable straight. Pretty weak, and if the live stack had bet more, I might have gone away.

goodcash: bets 150
FrankNagaiJr: calls 150

*** TURN *** [5h 3d 7s] [9d]
I now have a backdoor flush draw, and any ten for a high straight, and I only have to call a tiny bet to stay? Sure!

goodcash: bets 150
FrankNagaiJr: calls 150

*** RIVER *** [5h 3d 7s 9d] [6h]
goodcash: bets 300
FrankNagaiJr: raises 1788 to 2088
goodcash: calls 1788
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Jd 8d 4s Ac] (HI: a straight, Four to Eight; LO: 6,5,4,3,A)
goodcash: mucks hand

I think I played this hand just fine.

Hand 37 - I attempt a small blind pot-steal and get a call when I'm half naked with [7s Kc 4d Kd]. The flop is Q44, and he folds to my pot-sized cont-bet. Good.

Hand 38 - I'm a huge chip leader, and I limp [3c 5s 4c 6h], and the SB limps. The BB pot-raises (he raises a lot), so I push both players in. Their hands:
pinocchio46: shows [Qc Ad Jh Th]
goodcash: shows [8h 4h Kc Ac]

Two dimes has me at 30% EV pre-flop, so I was getting the odds I needed to show that I wasn't going to fold anything that I limped.

I lost both ways with this board.
*** RIVER *** [8c 9c 7s 6d] [5d]

Hand 51 - I pot-raise one limper w/[9s Ah Ad 6s] and he pushes with a solid hand [2d 4c Jh As] Two dimes puts me at 58% pre-flop, but I lose the coin flip. I'm still 3 to 1 chip leader over any other stack.

Hand 55 - In BB w/[As 6h 4d 2d] and I bump raise two limpers. I pot-bet the flop and take it down.
*** FLOP *** [Ad 7h 2s]

Hand 57 - I limp [7d 5s 2d Ac], and when pot-raised I push into the raiser, who calls with [6h Ah Ad Td]. Because my diamond draw is worthless, I'm the 38% dog here. If I had the Ace of Spades instead, my chances go up to 43%. I scoop with two pair and my A5 making the low. I'm now 5 to 1 against the two remaining stack.s

Hand 58 - the other two duke it out, and now I'm 2 to 1 stack agains the remaining player, who tends not to push preflop, but relies more on post-flop skill to win.

Hand 62 - The decisive hand, which needs some twodiming.

Seat 2: FrankNagaiJr (10173 in chips)
Seat 7: pinocchio46 (3327 in chips)

Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kh Ah Ad 5s]
pinocchio46: calls 100
FrankNagaiJr: raises 400 to 600
pinocchio46: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Jd 3s 2s]

I have a decent low draw, and he does NOT have the nut flush draw, even though I don't have a flush draw at all. Still, I can't believe I'm not ahead here.

FrankNagaiJr: bets 1200
pinocchio46: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [Jd 3s 2s] [Qs]

If he's got the flush, I still have to chase the second-best low. If he doesn't I may still be okay with top pair of aces, but I doubt it. Note the inside straight draw that hits.

*** RIVER *** [Jd 3s 2s Qs] [Tc]
FrankNagaiJr: shows [Kh Ah Ad 5s] (HI: a straight, Ten to Ace)
pinocchio46: shows [6c Td 3d 7c] (HI: two pair, Tens and Threes)

Pre-flop, I was only the 56% favorite. If he had NO flush draws, I was the 62% favorite, and if he had one flush draw, I was the 59% favorite. It's good to be double-suited!

On the flop, my ev is 68%, and he needs to make two pair or trips for the high, and/or counterfeit my low draw to survive.

On the turn, nothing changes, and I'm 81% EV.

Game over.