Wednesday, September 13, 2006

All-in Math for Tourneys

Blinds 50/100 - You are in the big blind w/Js 5s, a stack of 1625 (11M) after posting;
3 others in the pot (400$)
The flop comes 5d 7s Ks giving you second pair and a weak flush draw.

You bet 200, and there is a reraise by a larger stack to 400.

If you come over the top and are called, you're putting in 1225 to win 3650 at that point, or 2 to 1 odds for 2 cards.

If you call, you're getting 5 to 1 odds to peel off one card, and presumably your opponent will push you all-in on the turn. If you fold on the turn, you'll be left with 1225, or 8M to move on with.

Against a higher pair with no flush draw, you're about 43% (1.3 to 1) for the next two cards. Against any two spades, you're actually a slight favorite (51% or 1 to 1) here. Against a set, you're 28% or 3 to 1.

I chose to push, and lost to the Kh Jh.