Thursday, February 02, 2006

Good night for suckouts - for other people

I guess I can't let bad plays and bad beats get me down. While these suckouts happen to me more than occasionally, they only happen because I started out with the best hand. What I find more perturbing is when I absolutely cannot get action on my decent hands: those tourneys are much harder to win.

Bad Beat #1
2nd level of 45 player sng, I'm in the BB with Ad 4d - about 7 limpers.

Flop 235 rainbow, so I've got the nuts (although you can't rule out 46o, I figured I could take my chances). I bet the pot.

2nd player to act, with just a few less chips than me, goes all in. It's an obvious call.

He flips TT

Me: 95.05% to win

Turn: T
I'm still 70% to win.

And he pairs the 3.


Bad Beat/Play #2
9 player sng, blinds are 75/150, 6 players remaining

I have 77.

Two clownfish limp in ahead of me, so I raise to 4BB (about 1/3 of any of our stacks), one stays, one goes.

Flop 689 rainbow
I make the probe bet, he stays.

Turn 7

At this point I push all-in. I'm pot-committed with only 4M if I fold, and unless he's got trips or AT, I've got the best hand right now. If I'm beat, I'm beat.

He turns over T4s for a straight, and I fail to catch a miracle T to survive.