Monday, January 09, 2006

bottom two pair vs (top pair & runner-runner straight draw)

This was one of my early double up hands. I'd like to see what the odds were now that the dust had settled.

4 limpers, I'm in BB w/T7os
(This has been a tight-ish table, far from the typical on-line game)

Flop QT7 - two suited
I make a potsized bet, and get reraised by one player

After much consideration, I figure he's either got top pair or a strong draw, and I must be ahead either way. I figured he would raise w/QQ or TT, and he was also in good position for an isolation raise on the early limpers w/77 (one of the two early limpers was playing very agressively).

I give him the all-in question, and he says yes, and flips QJos.

T7 is the 69.70% favorite
QJ is the 30.30 underdog

I make my boat, and he fails to make a bigger boat to settle the argument

Let's do the math of the other hands I had put him on.

T7 vs KJ
I am the 67.17% fave

T7 vs 89 with a flush draw
Actually I'm still the 52.52% favorite

T7 vs a high card AQ flush draw
Now I am the 48.18% underdog, but I was still getting appropriate pot odds for this move.

T7 vs nightmate 77
My two outer is 9.09% chance to hit

T7 vs an oddly limped QQ
Only runner runner 10s or 7s can save me 0.20%
Again, absolutely he couldn't have limped QQ in this context.

T7 vs limped TT
I need runner-runner queens for a tie, or runner runner 7s to win.
0.10% to win
0.30 to tie

But again, the only nightmare hand I could reasonably put him on was 77, and this player had been agressive enough that I felt he would have raised on any pocket pair.