Thursday, January 05, 2006

On-line donkfest simulation

Since I'm playing so many donk tourneys, let's do a little statistical analysis.

First level of a 1500 chip tourney, blinds 10/20

Let's pick four random donk hands and something for ourselves

P1: 5c Tc (yes, people will limp this @20, and even call a 4BB raise with it.)
P2: Qd Jh (even donks get playable card, right?)
P3: 3s 4s (A little too low for my tastes, but...)
P4: Ah 7h (Not a donk hand, or maybe I'm a donk...)

And now let's see some probabilities if I join in the mix with some cards.

Small suited connectors - not dominated in the flush
9d 8d

P1: 19.06%
P2: 20.23%
P3: 18.86%
P4: 21.67%
ME: 20.06

Hmm, that's not a ridiculous distribution, even for suited 34, is it?

Dominated small suited
9h 8h
My hand drops to 15.49, P1 goes up to 20%, P2 goes up to 23.75%, and even P3 goes up to 20.21%. P4 also drops a point for the flush cards gone.

Low pocket pair not dominated
6s 6d

P1: 18.49%
P2: 23.70%
P3: 15.88%
P4: 22.89%
P5: 18.90

Of course, unless I hit trips I usually have to give them up unless nobody bets at the flop.

Low pocket pair dominated
5s 5d

P1: 16.34%
P2: 27.90%
P3: 15.15%
P4: 27.67%
P5: 11.59%

And my pocket pairs have become a dog. Either I hit the flop or get the heck out.

High Pocket pair not dominated
Ks Kd
P1: 17.07%
P2: 10.69%
P3: 17.40%
P4: 21.87%
ME: 32.86%

Looks like I need a healthy raise here to make some magic.

High Pocket pair dominated
Js Jd
P1: 17.16%
P2: 16.56%
P3: 18.30%
P4: 24.50%
ME: 22.31%

Hmm, T5 suited is not a ridiculous hand, is it? Of course, it's really tough to know for certain that your top pair or two pair is good, so it's probably pretty easy to lose some money when your cards hit halfway.