Saturday, January 07, 2006

Old Cycles Hand Analysis

A social group members asks if he played this hand correctly. Let's analyze this NL tourney hand at the third level:

PokerStars Game #3556888835: Tournament #17650011, Hold'em No Limit -
Level III (25/50) - 2006/01/07 - 00:30:36 (ET)
Table '17650011 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: jefrock21 (2285 in chips)
Seat 2: 05_riverman (1690 in chips)
Seat 3: CurrlyMoe (1055 in chips)
Seat 4: oldcycles (1245 in chips)
Seat 5: mdl1971 (1125 in chips)
Seat 6: Noles4life (1350 in chips)
Seat 7: jmndcrl (475 in chips)
Seat 8: GPBaby (2560 in chips)
Seat 9: Montana High (1715 in chips)
Montana High: posts small blind 25
jefrock21: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oldcycles [4h 4d]
05_riverman: folds
CurrlyMoe: folds
oldcycles: calls 50
mdl1971: raises 50 to 100
Noles4life: folds
jmndcrl: folds
GPBaby: calls 100
Montana High: calls 75
jefrock21: calls 50
oldcycles: calls 50

FNJ - You're 7.5 to 1 to hit trips, limped in cheap hoping for pot odds. When it comes back to you you're getting 7 to 1 odds to call, so it wasn't a ridiculous call. If md1 had raise to 3 or 4BB, you wouldn't be getting the odds you require to make this call at a tight table. Of course, on-line if you hit trips, you have a decent chance of collecting somebody's all-in bet if they've got two pair.

The pot is now 400 in chips, and you've got 1145 in your stack. I'm not crazy about being the low stack compared to the other three in the pot and rolling the dice like this. Limping pockets is a better play when you can better afford to miss and throw them away.

*** FLOP *** [Ts Qh 4c]
Montana High: checks
jefrock21: bets 50
oldcycles: raises 250 to 300
mdl1971: calls 300
GPBaby: folds
Montana High: folds
jefrock21: calls 250

FNJ - Jefrock had been doing probe bets on good hands or on every flop he sees? I like your raise of 3/4 of the pot, although you could certainly be facing an outside straight draw (KJ) with a possible runner-runner flush draw. If such a draw exists, with 31.5% on 8 outs in two cards, you are still offering them reasonable odds on the draw. 750 to 250 is 33% bet for the microbetter, and the other people have a 750 to 300 shot, which is still not ridiculous for the outside draw.

Of course, had you been paying attention to the other hands MD1 raised with? If he bets 2BB on pocket pairs, such as TT or QQ, you may already be facing a one-outer against higher trips.

*** TURN *** [Ts Qh 4c] [6d]
jefrock21: checks
oldcycles: bets 845 and is all-in
mdl1971: calls 725 and is all-in
jefrock21: calls 845

FNJ -A blank, and you've gone all-in? I think an all-in smells of desperation, but you were the low stack and you actually did want callers if you were in the lead, which you were. If you're in the lead in the hand and low-stacked at the table, you want to triple up if at all possible.

*** RIVER *** [Ts Qh 4c 6d] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jefrock21: shows [Qd 7d] (a pair of Queens)
oldcycles: shows [4h 4d] (three of a kind, Fours)
oldcycles collected 240 from side pot
mdl1971: shows [As Kd] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
mdl1971 collected 3575 from main pot

And Md1 did a bump raise with big slick off, and stayed for two cards with the inside draw. You played this right and got sucked out. What if everybody played correctly all the time? That would actually be worse, because when you hit your trips and bet them on the flop, everybody folds, and you didn't collect 7.5 to 1 for playing 44, so you should be happy to get these callers despite the suckouts.

Hey, last night I went all-in on a flopped straight, and one clownfish called me with an inside straight draw or runner-runner flush draw. I loved it. Of course, he hit a royal flush, but them's the breaks.

How embarrassing would it be to tell your buddies about your royal flush and you had to confess to you calling an all-in with an inside straight draw to see it?