Sunday, May 21, 2006

Critiquing Somebody Else's (NYCNative) PLO8 Play - Part 2

I'm re-analyzing hand 10 to start, because when I re-read the blog, I misread the hand.Ooops, never mind, you did have a boat on the flop. I was pretty tired last night.

FNJ - Hand 11 - Doesn't look as bad this morning as it did last night. Let's look at the pre-flop EV of this hand with the cards face up. See how you (first hand) are in 3rd place pre-flop? That's because you are only looking at half the pot if there is any kind of qualified low. Two aces with one suited is limpable, but I like to have at least an 8 in my hand before I get agressive with something like this.

As 9c Ad Qd 37270 101964 269358 5670 0 0 0 0.192
Ac 2c Kd Qh 66194 86758 284564 5670 156591 25848 7875 0.384
6s 3d Ah Th 43448 103124 273071 797 68484 139374 7875 0.270
Js Jh 5h 2h 37167 79313 297516 163 0 126060 0 0.155

FNJ - In the pre-flop betting sequence, your isolation raise would have made sense if there weren't two players who already called the first raise. It's much more likely in PLO8 that if they call one raise, a big re-raise is NOT likely to push them out. For this reason, I like a call better. If the board contains any two wheel cards, you should get the hell out cheaply.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NYCNative [9c Ad Qd As]
pokersnail has timed out
pokersnail: folds
pokersnail is sitting out
MightyBug: folds
upcountryboy: raises 75 to 105
barkley05: calls 105
corkylp: calls 105
Wauzzz: folds
NYCNative: raises 465 to 570
Jsleezey: folds
RTBaLLa: folds
upcountryboy: calls 65 and is all-in
barkley05: calls 465
corkylp: calls 465

FNJ - Let's check out your EV on the flop now. There are no lows possible, and you've got the nut flush draw, so you're now the clear favorite here, although your top pair was possibly behind to two pair at this point. If anybody held something like A2QJ, you were behind, but too late to worry about that.

*** FLOP *** [9d Kc Td]
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9c Ad Qd 268 268 248 12 0 0 0 0.519
Ac 2c Kd Qh 128 128 388 12 0 0 0 0.253
6s 3d Ah Th 106 106 421 1 0 0 0 0.201
Js Jh 5h 2h 14 14 514 0 0 0 0 0.027

*** TURN *** [9d Kc Td] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [9d Kc Td Qc] [9s]

FNJ - You were behind on the turn, of course,and had the diamonds, aces, queens and nines as outs. It was a reasonable assumption that the aces were accounted for given the pre-flop action. I'm okay with your post-flop play, but not crazy about your pre-flop play here.

*********** # 12 **************
PokerStars Game #4997021257: Tournament #25073790, $5.00+$0.50 Omaha Hi/Lo
Pot Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/05/20 - 15:37:31 (ET)
Table '25073790 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Wauzzz (2830 in chips)
Seat 2: NYCNative (5385 in chips)
Seat 3: Jsleezey (1425 in chips)
Seat 4: RTBaLLa (600 in chips)
Seat 5: pokersnail (1600 in chips)
Seat 6: MightyBug (1660 in chips)

FNJ - You now have a very healthy chip stack. You should tighten up for a while at this blind level, and let the shorties duke it out unless you've got premium starters. Let's see if you do just that.

FNJ - Hand 12 - Nope, you keep pushing it. Three to a wheel without a suited ace is limpable, but it's a very dangerous hand to get agressive with. I don't like your play here, and would call this a luckbox result.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NYCNative [Ah 5c 7s 4s]
MightyBug: calls 30
Wauzzz: folds
NYCNative: raises 105 to 135
Jsleezey: folds
RTBaLLa: calls 120
pokersnail: folds
MightyBug: calls 105

*** FLOP *** [3d 3s 3c]
Checks all around
*** TURN *** [3d 3s 3c] [6h]
checks all around
*** RIVER *** [3d 3s 3c 6h] [2c]
FNJ - And the luckbox successfully buys the pot with a pot-sized bet on the strength of the nut low. Nice result despite the poor pre-flop play.

FNJ - Hand 13 - I hate this call from early position. You are drawing to a weak low, and a weak high, and crossing your fingers for a miracle. Toss this hand. Of course, you flop a very sweet but unlikely flop, and river the miracle card to buy the pot.

Dealt to NYCNative [Jc 5c 6s 3s]
*** RIVER *** [9h 2h As 8c] [4c]

FNJ - Hand 14 - Nice fold.
Dealt to NYCNative [Kh 5s 6h 5d]

FNJ - Hand 15 - You raise the pot with one limper in and he folds. This was a great hand to do this with.
Dealt to NYCNative [8c 7h 2s As]

FNJ - Hand 16 - You toss this hand in response to an early raise. I trust you also would have tossed it with a suited king.
Dealt to NYCNative [5d Ks 7h Jd]

- Hand 17 - you raise to open, a much smaller stack goes in, and you call to win with two pair, no qualified low. I'm totally okay with your play here.
Dealt to NYCNative [5d As 2c Jd]

Check out the chip counts at this point. Steady as she goes.
Seat 1: Wauzzz (2665 in chips)
Seat 2: NYCNative (6475 in chips)
Seat 3: Jsleezey (1430 in chips)
Seat 5: pokersnail (1525 in chips)
Seat 6: MightyBug (1405 in chips)

FNJ - Hand 18 - I think you could wait for even better hands with blinds still at 25/50. The blinds are not really worth stealing yet, and your hand is average at best. As it is, you luckbox out when your opponents very nice low hand is double-counterfeited.
Dealt to NYCNative [8s Td Ac Qs]
*** RIVER *** [Js As 7d 7c] [2d]
pokersnail: shows [2c Ad 9c 3s] (HI: two pair, Aces and Sevens)
NYCNative: shows [8s Td Ac Qs] (HI: two pair, Aces and Sevens - Queen
NYCNative collected 3100 from pot

Check out these chip counts now:
Seat 1: Wauzzz (2665 in chips)
Seat 2: NYCNative (8050 in chips)
Seat 3: Jsleezey (1430 in chips)
Seat 6: MightyBug (1355 in chips)

Don't get a speeding ticket!

FNJ - Hand 19 - A fine fold in the big blind to an early position raise.
Dealt to NYCNative [Kc 3h 6s 7h]

FNJ - Hand 20 - I really dislike your call in the SB to an early position raise. This is a trouble hand, and you luckbox this one in a big way.
Dealt to NYCNative [2h 5h 5d 6d]
MightyBug: raises 100 to 150
Wauzzz: folds
Wauzzz is sitting out
NYCNative: calls 125
Jsleezey: folds
*** RIVER *** [8d 7s 8s Td] [9c]
And you both check it down to the river, and you didn't bet the river as first to act with a straight, presumaby due to the boat? Unless he raised w/A2T8, I don't see much chance of a boat here.

- Hand 21 - Your first speeding ticket comes here. I really dislike your raise, even short-handed.
Dealt to NYCNative [Tc 9c As Qh]
Wauzzz: folds
NYCNative: raises 125 to 175
Jsleezey: folds
MightyBug: calls 125

FNJ - I'm also not crazy about betting the pot on a straight draw with no possible low here. It comes back to haunt you.
*** FLOP *** [8h 8d 7d]
MightyBug: checks
Wauzzz has returned
NYCNative: bets 375
MightyBug: calls 375

FNJ - Yes, your call was obligatory despite the obvious flush, and that's the problem with starting out with trouble hands.
*** TURN *** [8h 8d 7d] [Jd]
MightyBug: bets 730 and is all-in
NYCNative: calls 730
*** RIVER *** [8h 8d 7d Jd] [Kc]

MightyBug: shows [Ad 9d 3d Jh] (HI: a flush, Ace high)
NYCNative: shows [Tc 9c As Qh] (HI: a straight, Seven to Jack)
MightyBug collected 2585 from pot

I think that if you had been showing down better hands, mighty bug might have tossed A3 preflop, but you've shown such crappy hands so far, he figured correctly that Ace-three would probably do just fine.

To be continued. Here's our chip count.
Seat 1: Wauzzz (2640 in chips)
Seat 2: NYCNative (6920 in chips)
Seat 3: Jsleezey (1355 in chips)
Seat 6: MightyBug (2585 in chips)